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Strategies & Market Trends : Young and Older Folk Portfolio

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peterad

To: chowder who wrote (898)	4/4/2022 10:50:20 AM
From: chowder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 21781

Re: Old Folk Portfolio .. Add On Buys With over $20K per month coming into the portfolio in dividends alone, I have cash to put to work on a regular basis. Today I added to: HD .. BMO .. VICI .. DHI .. MS .. AQN DHI - The home builders have been taking a hit and I bought on this price weakness. It is a value play with double digit earnings growth expectations this year. When I use the DCF Model to determine the intrinsic value of DHI, I come up with the following valuations. Rate - Intrinsic Value - Premium/Discount < > represents the discount Bull Rate - $246.03 .. <52%> Base Rate - $157.71 .. <69%> Bear Rate - $113.50 .. <33%> So whether you are Bullish, Neutral or Bearish on DHI, you have 3 levels of fair value. As of the close Friday, the price was $76.18. So regardless of your view, DHI was selling at a discount to its intrinsic value. Analysts Ratings - Buy or Strong Buy - Hold - Sell 40 - 13 - 0 .. Wall St. is Bullish on DHI. ----------------------------------- AQN was simply a value play in a hot sector (utilities). Intrinsic Value: Bull Rate - $31.46 .. <50%> Base Rate - $21.13 .. <26%> Bear Rate - $17.39 .. <10%> Analysts Ratings: 15 - 10 - 2 ------------------------------- VICI a value play with double digit earnings growth expected this year. Intrinsic Value: Bull Rate - $55.58 .. <48%> Base Rate - $40.48 .. <29%> Bear Rate - $32.02 .. <10%> Analysts Ratings: 47 - 3 - 0 ... They really like this one. ------------------------------ BMO another value play with respectable earnings growth. It rated out the highest of all the Canadian Banks. Intrinsic Value: Bull Rate - $310.04 .. <62%> Base Rate - $194.49 .. <40%> Bear - $151.92 .. <23%> Analysts Ratings: 22 - 5 - 0 -------------------------------- HD - I don't know. I could have waited for a better price point but it's dropped 28% so far from its 52 week high so I threw a few dollars at it. Intrinsic Value: Bull Rate - $374.10 .. <19%> Base Rate: - $256.52 .. +15% (selling at a premium) Bear Rate - $214.13 .. +29% If it were in a tax-deferred account as opposed to a taxable account I would have switched it out for LOW who has much better values and financial fundamentals. HD will do fine over the long term though and it will be paying a higher dividend. Analysts Ratings: 67 - 21 - 2 ----------------------------------------- MS is another value play. Financials are supposed to perform better than most in a higher interest rate environment so as more interest rate announcements come, I'm thinking companies like MS will benefit, thus I'm building the position now. Intrinsic Value: Bull Rate - $234.19 .. <63%> Base Rate - $169.98 .. <49%> Bear Rate - $102.03 .. <15%> Another company selling at a discount to its intrinsic value even in a bear scenario. Analysts Ratings: 45 - 26 -0

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