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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: tekgk who wrote (13921)	2/9/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) of 18056

Tekgk,Russell and Bonnie, I think these guys make a good case for significant downside and pain at some point. While it may sound extreme the momentum and leverage which drives this mania upward will work to the detriment of investors? when the inevitable bear begins. I have been a Richebacher subscriber for about a year and I am very impressed with his analysis. In his Sept. 96 and March 97 he warned about the situation in SEA. In his Sept 96 issue he says "... what makes the Asia Tigers so interesting is that they are universally seen as an outstandingly healthy group of countries with the brightest of futures ahead of them. In fact,they may be teetering on the edge of a cliff....The Tiger economies now are an integral part of the U. S. and Japanese financial bubbles. While America has been overinflating consumption,the Tiger counties,like Japan,have been overinflating their industrial base ,pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into production facilities for high-tech products that are completely dependent of export markets. ..." I will post some more from the March letter later where he gets more specific. I am a forgiving bear when it comes to forecasts because manias are rare and difficult to time. Mike

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