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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives
SPY 691.72-0.1%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: POKERSAM who wrote (170957)4/5/2022 11:10:39 PM
From: northam3 Recommendations

Recommended By
da_spot
rayrohn
yard_man

  Read Replies (2) of 221947
 
I don't see a path to 2200.

To get down to 2200 we would have to confirm a Yearly Bear Cycle (Y-S-1), projected low 2377.92, the earliest a Yearly Bear Cycle can be confirmed is 12/31/2023. The current Yearly Extended Bull Cycle (Y-E-2) has a projected high of 10331.27, the high is due 12/31/2034.

For the Yearly Bear Cycle to get confirmed the SPX will have to open 2023 below 3214.30 and remain below that level until 12/31/2023

To get to 3214 we would need a Monthly Extended Bear Cycle (M-E-1), it takes 7 months to get a M-E-1 confirmed, right now the earliest a Monthly Bear Cycle can be confirmed is at the close on 5/31/2022, for that to happen the Monthly will have to open 5/2/2022 below 4529.18 and remain below that level until the close on 5/31/2022.

To get a Quarterly Bear Cycle the SPX will have to drop below 4114 by 7/1/2022 and remain below that level until the close on 9/30/2022, the Quarterly Short Bear Cycle (Q-S-1) projected low is 3812.51, the low will be due 12/31/22. Right now the Quarterly is above it's EMA 3 at 4510.61, which is strong Bull territory.

Right now my Bear Cycles are showing a possible low of 4278.95 by the middle of May, on the Bull side there is the possibility of 5000 by July.

I'm expecting a Quarterly Bear Cycle (Q-S-1) around the 2nd Quarter of 2023, with a projected low of around 4000. Then the next Quarterly Bull Cycle could take the SPX to 10,000 by 2034.

Bottom line: I doubt you see 2200 in your lifetime.
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