Craig, I agree totally about where we are now. But I don't think AUI will be a killer app for most people who use the pcs right now, at least not until it gets perfected and cheap.
Also, I absolutely do not believe the number of folks who buy for the Internet and then upgrade to build their own web pages or whatever, is substantial. And other stuff he said, like painting, word processing, etc., are done as well or even better, because it is simpler, on the cheaper machines. As for games, why would anyone pay an extra $1000-2000 for a more capable computer gamester box when the best pc does not approach the capabilities of a $300-600 game machine, ala Nintendo 64, Play Station, etc.? The fact that pcs want to be all things to all people is both a selling point for the cheap pcs and a stumbling block for these specialized apps.
I think the next killer app will be simplification, with voice recognition and rationalization of the pc's software a major part of the game. If it is as easy, as reliable and as cheap as a tv, it can some day sell like tvs. However, I own a 13 year old tv and have never felt any desire whatsoever to upgrade to a new model. I'll buy a new one when this one breaks. So, reliability and simplification could eventually cause the death knell of pc sales growth, though there would be a huge burst of penetration before that happened. MB |
