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Skeets, One thing the bulls always miss is that though demand is growing rapidly, the standard DRAM chip is increasing by 400 pct. in capability and nothing in price every year or two. A 16 Mbit chip is 4 times as capable as a 4 Mbit chip, and sells for the same price 4 Mbit chips sold for 18 months ago. Have we quadrupled the demand for megabits? Nope. Ditto for the move from 16 Mbit to 64 Mbit. The 64s are going from $11-15, just about where 16 Mbits were going 18 months ago. Yes, demand is up and chippies have increased yields tremendously, but, so far, Mbit supply growth is not only ahead of Mbit demand growth, it is running much faster. Somebody, in fact, several somebodies, have to drop out of this business. They haven't yet. MB |
