Looking positive / negative depending on positioning, even as positioning might not matter should the entire market go south relative to fiat, unless one dares to be in fiat, or have shorted to such an extent as to be essentially all-in against the longs, or one is long negative ETFs that are ultra-leveraged negative bets
From McHugh this day
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More important technical analysis news: The stock market generated it fourth "official" simultaneous Hindenburg Omen on Tuesday, April 12th. It triggered its second H.O. observation in the past several days (it takes a minimum of two to be official), making this now an official H.O. We now have four on the clock at the same time. That has never happened before since we began tracking this indicator from 1986. One of the four expires in 4 days. That would still leave three simultaneous H.O. Stock Market Crash signals, this latest one on the clock through August 12th, 2022. This is a very dangerous warning from the stock market.
Today's Market Comments:
Stocks rose solidly early in the day, then plunged in the afternoon, closing down modestly at the close. The Industrials fell sharply 559 points from intraday highs, the S&P 500 fell 90 points from intraday highs on Tuesday, April 12th. All three major averages have negated their alternate short-term bullish scenarios we showed the past few days. Stocks are headed lower, with occasional corrective bounces like we saw Tuesday. Stocks are declining from their March 29th highs in a series of lower highs and lower lows. This is the start of wave iii down. Volume remains below their 10-day moving average.
More important technical analysis news: The stock market generated it fourth "official" simultaneous Hindenburg Omen on Tuesday, April 12th. It triggered its second H.O. observation in the past several days (it takes a minimum of two to be official), making this now an official H.O. We now have four on the clock at the same time. That has never happened before since we began tracking this indicator from 1986. One of the four expires in 4 days. That would still leave three simultaneous H.O. Stock Market Crash signals, this latest one on the clock through August 12th, 2022. This is a very dangerous warning from the stock market.
The Labor Department reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index soared to 8.5 percent in March, the highest inflation rate in 41 years. This was the "admitted" hyperinflation rate, which anyone who can sit up and take nourishment knows is much higher. They have to minimize the reported inflation rate since entitlement program payouts get inflation escalators, which would strain government budgets should the rate be reported accurately.
Here is the problem. This is not a demand driven inflation, as seen in the past. It is a supply constraint issue. The only tools the Fed has to reduce inflation are to raise interest rates and to pull money from the economy through the selling of securities it holds on its balance sheet. These tools reduce aggregate demand, they do not increase aggregate supply. The other tool to kill inflation is a natural consequence of the Fed's attack on aggregate demand: a stock market crash, and sustainable economic Recession / Depression. Again, that does nothing to increase aggregate supply. How to increase supply is new turf. This is not going to end well.
Stocks have completed the Right Shoulder of a Head & Shoulders top pattern for all three major indices, a typically Bearish pattern that looks to be in place to kick off wave iii-down. In the charts on pages 38 (Industrials), 45 (S&P 500), and 50 (NASDAQ 100), we show the entire pattern for stocks from their February 24th lows through now. The pattern is clear, and we have high confidence that the top is in, or will be with one more pop, if an alternate scenario is occurring, which we show in charts on pages 39 and 46. The alternate scenario has been eliminated for Techs. Their outlook is very Bearish over the short run. A 40 point drop in the S&P 500 will eliminate its short term bullish alternate scenario.
There are Bearish divergences developing between the S&P 500 and the 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator (page 20), and the S&P 500 and its Demand Power measure (page 13), and the NASDAQ 100 and its Demand Power measure (page 22).
We can expect a continuing wild ride for the Stock Market in 2022. There are going to be a total of 18 Phi Mate and significant Bradley Model turn dates throughout 2022. There will be 7 turns that both cycle methods identify together. Those will likely be major turns in the stock market. By comparison, there were only 8 total Phi Mate and Bradley Model turn dates during 2021, with only two turns identified by both at the same time. We will progressively feed these forward dates to you during 2022. Trend Turns typically occur +/- a few days from these dates.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal November 26th. It rose 4 points Tuesday (out of a possible 9 points), to negative - 38.
The Blue Chip three component key indicator is on a Sell signal. The NASDAQ 100 three component key indicator is on a Sell signal. The small cap Russell 2000's Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell signal from April 5th.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal April 6th, 2022 and remain there Tuesday, April 12th, 2022. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Thursday, March 31st. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on April 1st, 2022, and the 30-Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on April 6th, 2022. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power Fell 7 to 494 Tuesday, while Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 503, telling us Tuesday's Blue Chip decline was mild. This DP/SP Indicator generated a Neutral Signal April 11th.
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
The HUI generated a new Purchasing Power Indicator Neutral signal April 5th, as its 30 day Stochastic moved to a Sell, at odds with the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator, which remains on a Buy signal, but is weakening.
Gold may have formed a second Bullish Cup and Handle pattern from 2020, at the tail end of a larger degree Bullish Cup and Handle pattern from 2011. In the chart on page 58, we show this latest pattern. If this is correct, Gold is now working through the Handle portion. Once complete, another strong rally leg will take Gold substantially higher.
As for the larger degree Bullish Cup and Handle pattern, Gold broke decisively above the declining upper boundary of the "Handle" portion of a huge Bullish Cup and Handle pattern that started in 2011, several weeks ago. This is a major development for Gold, which very likely will carry over into Silver and Mining stocks. The charts on pages 54 through 58 tell the story. Nothing moves straight up or down, there are corrections as prices progress, however the long-term picture for Gold is quite Bullish. Gold is headed for 3,000.
Gold may have completed small degree wave {3} up, with subwave {4} down underway now. If so, to follow will be a powerful wave {5} up. Gold rose 27.9 Tuesday. Silver rose 0.75, while Mining stocks rose 2.09.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator moved to a Neutral signal April 5th, 2022, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal March 5th, and the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Buy on April 1st. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Buy signal February 14th. On Tuesday, April 12th, Demand Power was flat at 385 while Supply Pressure fell to 380, telling us Tuesday's rise was mild.
DJIA/SPY PPI fell 7 to negative -22.60, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 58.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 36.67 Slow 37.78 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 53.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 40.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 30.00
Secondary Trend Indicator rose 4 to Negative - 38, On a Sell
Demand Power Fell 7 to 494, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 503 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator rose to negative - 92.04
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 409.94
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator - 514.1 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 90 New Lows 276
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Sell signal Wednesday, April 6th, 2022, and remain there April 12th, 2022. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on April 5th, 2022, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on March 31st, 2022, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on April 5th, 2022. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Sell Signal Monday, April 11th, and remains there April 12th. On Tuesday, April 12th, Demand Power Fell 5 to 427, while Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 449, telling us Tuesday's decline was moderate.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal April 11th, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative - 29.6 on Tuesday, April 12th.
NDX 100 Purchasing Power Indicator Fell 1 to 247.40 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 40.00 Slow 52.00 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 22.00 Slow 30.40 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 29.6 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 5 to 427, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 449 Sell
RUT PPI Flat at + 177.85, on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -539.5, On a Sell
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary from that report is an educational service providing a body of technical analysis that measures the possibility and probability of future changes in mass psychology (swings from pessimism to optimism and back) which identifies possible new trends in major markets within various time frames, from very short term (daily) through very long term (years and decades). T |
