Re <<gold ... gold miners [inflation]>>
... all about what be anti-inflation, transitory or persistent, and do so in anti-fragile ways, ideally without counter-party risks
:0)
(1) The Coconut was born in October 2004, when gold price was $422 kitco.com
(1-i) At the precise time during the inception trip to Bora Bora, I discussed just so Message 19704772
(1-ii) At the same time QCOM was ~$42 finance.yahoo.com
(1-iii) NEM was ~$44 finance.yahoo.com
(1-iv) The tuition + room / board of the sort of university the coconut was most likely to attend was @ ~$39K (~$30,000 tuition + ~$9,000 room & board)
Now, today, ...
(2) The 2023-04 tuition of whichever school she finally opts to attend shall cost ~ $83K (~$65k tuition + ~$18K room & board) or slightly less. The year's cost of her schooling and keep went up 2.13X from 2004-05 season
(2-i) Gold is @ ~$1,974 (who knows what gold shall be when the bill is to be paid come July?), up 4.68X
(2-ii) QCOM and NEM rose 3.26X and 1.89X, respectively
(2-iii) For reference, pumped by QEs, machinated by survivor-bias, and driven by passive flows, QQQ went up ~9X during the same elapsed time, the QQQ that can and might well halve from here, to 4.5X
(2-iv) for comparison, HK industrial-loft real estate easily went 10X unleveraged during the same time, and paid and paying healthy yields on cost basis Message 19781668
(3) I think by 2026 graduation time for the coconut, gold can easily double and QQQ halve, relatively to each other.
Q might halve or worse, relatively speaking,
NEM can do 4X, and
HK industrial-lofts would be under redevelopment as part of earnest Greater Bay buildout and do 2X from here and now.
(4) Of course, Casper siliconinvestor.com can do 100X by that time and earning 8-10% yield per annum all along the way (my all-in cost basis is $0.0388 (private sales and public adds) coingecko.com
(5) Let's see. My three largest positions (1, 2, and 3) are HK industrial lofts, physical gold, and Casper
(5-i) As far as equities go, gold Message 33800529 and
(5-ii) silver Message 33800527 miners.
the miners, as a group, can do 5-10X, close-enough estimate for government work.
Graduation time 2026 May -June. |
