Is it different this time ?
I took the patterns from 2018/19 and 2020 events. made triangles out of the start, low, and next high... and, made parabolas following the path carved in price back then, and then moved them all over to attach to an appropriate spot on the current chart... and drew new parabolas, using the slope of the current chart... to project a "best fit", in purple, matching the current chart to the prior patterns, (in red), for 2018-2019, 2019-2020, and 2018 - 2020... Also moved Chandelier Exits, long and short, drew a few other projection lines... and did the same sort of things on the ADX... dropping two red lines down from above off the projections mimicking those prior ADX transition points...
Also, noting the highly regimented array in the ROCs... which didn't happen in 2018, 2019, or 2020... I dropped trend lines from them following and projecting them... and, interesting, that they fall in the order you would expect... but, as they fall, the last to fall, fall harder, and cross over the earlier lines... which seems meaningful... So, down below... I made up arrows from the bottom reversal point of the ROCs in the prior events... and moved them over, just basing them on the ROCs off a drop below "where we are now"... which, of course, might slide lower and to the right, were the market to drop more than it has... so, all done on the "conservative" side ?
So, if this time is not all that different... but a decline in stocks goes about the same as one of the recent prior events... this is what that might look like... projected on a monthly chart. But, my projections would be in error if I used the wrong attachment point... which is still an unknowable...
I note, since the last time I did something like this on a chart... it projected to "now" with a bottom near the 5th of May... but, since then, the market has bounced higher for a week, and back lower for a week... sliding any coming crashiness to the right a bit more... But, the curve you would draw following the current price performance would still be plotting out well inside the earliest of these curves...
So, it looks good... but still projects to... now, or July, or October... or maybe July of 2023 ?
So, yeah... that was worth it... ? The 2020 triangle /steeper/deeper than 2018/2019... and maybe you can project that as a trend into another even steeper'deeper dive... and come up with sooner ? Except... ignore the "corrected" projections in my best fits... and it does appear to be tracking lower, now. following along the left side of the 2020 triangle ? It might still hit new lows... mid May to 1 July... if it gives another 2020 event.
But, maybe the market doesn't crash... and just gives us a long, grinding bear market for the next two years... like in 2008 ? Or, maybe, we just haven't had the right "trigger event" yet... and both the 2020 and 2018/9 triangles do have open "head space" allowing it to run higher before falling ?
So, give it 6 to 8 weeks. See how people are feeling after the grocery stores have all raised prices by another 40% to 60%... when the only thing still being discussed as "transitory" will be the prices you see here?
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