I did poke at the prior chart history of that...
Gold and the miners both have tended to participate in the initial event, but, then, end up declining far less than other things tend to fall... I think 2020 was a bit of an aberration, in part, as the whole point of the trade occurring at the time under the Basel III scheme was to "beat down the shares of the mining stocks, to make their shareholders pay the cost of the banks being bankrupted by naked shorting them"... So, gold itself lodged a bit of a "wobble" in the event... while a lot of mining shares went to deep discounts... as a key point of orchestrating he event.
Compare that to prior events... and the metal and the miners did about the same... falling 10 to 15% or 20% in the initial decline... but then recovering from that initial down move... while the rest of the market continues lower. By the time "other things" hit bottom... gold and the miners are solidly in the green.
I've been monitoring what i can of relative performance tendencies recently... and it looks to me like there may not be as much of that risk this time around as historically...
But, you never know what will happen... when "it" does happen...
I poked at charting again yesterday.... using historical reference points rather than native projections from the current charts... looking at it on monthly charts
Is it different this time ?
Also spent some time refining my uses of comparison and correlation charts... seeking means by which to filter out "noise" from "signal"... and, not surprisingly... which I see is... they're deliberately dithering... just dragging the trade (SPY / UVXY) out to the right... ensuring it mostly goes nowhere... and, thus... robbing speculators of premiums paid on options speculations... while transferring said loot into the pockets of those who benefit from the lack of price change as options expire worthless...
It has forced some changes in my approach to trading... but, really... it obviates the value of participation in the trade... as the range of potential movement is being restricted to few enough rungs movement up and down the ladder that its just not really worth the effort... when other trades are far more dynamic.
I dabble...mostly to keep a finger on the pulse at that point... but, all that's going on is shadow boxing... while engineering a move lower at a slow enough pace that the frogs remain optimistic about the spa...
But, my useful "wins" these days are coming from chart scan picks and trading energy stocks and ETFs... the big shift in Nat Gas is having ripple effects that will likely have long tails as stocks lag...
I appears still consistent with my prior view of the metrics... stretching things out as a single days worth of trading morphs into a week if wiggles in the same place... with "just" enough movement to make people think something is happening... when nothing is... or is about to... up or down... when it isn't...
I'm a frequent critic of John Howell's. Youtube blatherings on trading, but watch them often, to sustain sufficient exposure to discordant opinions... But he had one today that was actually reasonable in its considerations.. if not able to be any more precise in guesstimating timelines than my latest projections...
But, it is fairly well focused (for John) on addressing the same questions we are re gold... only, with the caveat that it is best consumed in off hours... as he specializes in packing 5 minutes of content into 25 minutes of video
Gold Flashes This MASSIVE WARNING Sign Before The Great Recession - It's Coming Again - GET READY
But, the message is: "not yet"... "look a year out ahead"... and don't look at a current chart while making the pitch about some distant point in the future ?
And, while being so wildly optimistic about "not yet"... pitching that it can't crash yet because there's not near enough irrational optimism ? The market I see is contested each day... between realists and optimists ? The character of the trade I see occurring... is one that is weakening on the upside a bit more every week, and every day... that have to push it uphill, often... while gravity still works just fine, when they let it...
And, I think they're fine with that... as putting the market in stasis seems the lowest risk option ?
Look at the volume trend on the chart below... from the end of January to now... ?
It'll happen when they want it to happen...when they're ready... or when they're not capable of preventing it any more... and not before... So, for now, I think we're back to where we were a year ago... the louder the voices screaming "crash any second"... when those voices are usually reliable "team players"... you can be sure "not now"... as they're lining you all up for the next sheering... I noted that, today... that the voices I was hearing screaming loudest... were not Peter Schiff, others reputable enough... but, "team players"...
However... after having fit the current chart into chart history yesterday... I still trust the chart we DO have right NOW... more than those projections of chart history...
And, what I note in my own re-analysis... is that the chart right now... is actually declining considerably faster than the historical comparisons... although its tracking lower along the left wall of the 2020 crash triangle...
So, the "wiggles"... are masking declines with ups and downs engineered to mask the trend... while taking the bites in smaller and more frequent nibbles... and forcing the deceleration in the trade is reducing the cost of running it with the shrinking volumes... but, that shrinking volume is itself a sign of an unhealthy market...
For now... they've pinned it in the middle of the range between 410 and 480... holding about 435... creeping lower today... and ending with a big spike higher into the close...? That's probably pre-positioning for lower at the open tomorrow...
 |
