Whys and whereof of Ukraine conflict not so murky. Fairly clear, in my view.
In 2004, Poland and others joined NATO.
In 2008, Bucharest declaration said that NATO wished for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. Joining the EU also on the menu.
Russians responded to Bucharest with an immediate and stark warning: “grave consequences for Pan-European security.” They were apparently ignored.
In 2008, Georgia, foolishly believing that the Bucharest invitation to join NATO meant a substantive promise of real support, took steps to slant West. The Russians then clobbered the Georgians in a war that has been mostly forgotten. It was a smaller but significant prologue for Ukraine today. If stronger, Russia would’ve then also gone after Ukraine, but it simply did not have the resources to do both at the same time.
In 2014, Ukraine had a revolution, deposing a Russian-speaking hugely corrupt President, native of East Ukraine. The revolution and subsequent new government were supported, funded, and fomented by the US via luminaries like Vindemann (remember this weasel, probably not) and Virginia “ph**k the EU” Unland. In the meantime, Donbas conflict festered as it had festered for a long time.
At one point after 2014, Ukraine’s Constitution had language in it re: joining NATO.
And here we are.
Prediction: Russian military turn to east means that we have seen the beginning of the end. Luhansk and Donetsk will become Russian. Negotiations are undoubtedly ongoing. More blood to be spilled, more propaganda from both sides to be endured, etc., but IMO it is ending. Tensions easing. Recall that Biden, before invasion, said that NATO was “not united” re: a response to a “small” incursion. He basically green-lighted Russia’s takeover of portions of east Ukraine. And that’s exactly what’s going on with turn to the east.
On the whole, the turn to the east in my view means that Putin has given up on taking all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper and has gone to Plan B or that he is now going after what we’re his original goals. He never wanted all of Ukraine, that was too much for even the Russians to swallow. Would’ve required commitment of a huge amount of military resources Russia could not afford to commit. Not to mention chronic and debilitating guerrilla warfare.
All kabuki from here on. |
