Glen,
I just want to make it very clear to all that, I am not saying that the market will have a major pullback of 500-600+ points as it did in AUG, OCT, DEC, but just that there should be some type of pullback, and subjectively for now I am saying 300 DOW points which is only 1/2 of AUG's pullback. If the highest the DOW gets is 8200 range, then I feel comfortable saying a pullback to 7900, if not more, and by expiration day 8000 range, at least intraday.
Also, the overall market could rebound back upwards, but if it does it would not be not much, and the highs for this whole week should only be today's highs or close to it. By Friday, I feel strongly on a subjective basis that the market will be down, if not sooner, since we have a 3 day weekend before expiration week.
If the DOW is still around 8200 on Thursday, which is possible but the possibilities of that are declining, I will really load up on PUTS in anticipation of Friday and will probably hold over the weekend.
I would like to add one more thing. If we do get a pullback upto FEB expiration (FEB 20) to the 7900-8000 range, then around Feb 23-25(MON, TUE, WED) we should get a mini-rebound, which some call a sucker's rally, then back down again.
Seeya
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