I think...
Stocks up, energy up (/interest rates up), Vix spikes, stocks down, energy down... is the cycle being operated...
We can easily chart that cyclic behavior providing evidence in a proof it exists... and, its not really in conflict with much in others understanding ? But, it does hint at (energy/interest rates) being more of a common tool being applied in deliberate coordination than most will allow themselves to consider...
From there... in trying to determine "tipping points" in which one leg in the cycle is enabled or forced to submit to that subsequent... a focus on "price points" at which that inevitability in result is enabled... requires a keen eye on the balances.... as some combination of oil prices and interest rates being "sufficient" enablement...
But, then, that also requires awareness that the pairing interacts with "money supply up"... so that both prices and interest rates have to be inflation adjusted to provide "real" relative balances... as that will determine functions... more than staring at some fixed numerical value that ls larger than prior fixed numerals associated with that... whatever... ?
Adding layers of complexity to the dynamic... in the balances between rates, oil prices, and the flows in money supply as a dynamic, and not just a fixed number defined in some "rate" in inflation ?
While rates are held below the inflation rate... they're perhaps not particularly relevant in considering end points imposed by them... Why might they want to keep them that low... even with inflation raging and altering the meaning of price (of oil and of other things) ? Perhaps... so not having to lower them very far when the need arises... at the next inflation point. But, if that is to remain a constant... it will alter the derivative in the balance in a oil price that is necessary and sufficient to do by itself what it might be expected to do with teamwork ordinarily ? Perhaps... as "blame avoidance" strategy ?
I don't know what the magic number is... but, I know I can't know what it is without knowing more than I do about how much money there will be in play at a given time ? Throw in additional complexity in relation to currency wars and risks in re-basing oil pricing in non-dollars... and how does that alter the view ?
I haven't computed an answer beyond... own oil until not... and then not... Buy VIX at the bottom as "not oil" arrives... and sell stocks at the top with a buy of VIX at the bottom... as oil is rising enough to reach "not oil" and end that leg of the cycle...
I'm aware... stocks are high... VIX is... not at a high, if not at a low... oil is rising, and good for a ride...
And, gold and silver... are odd men out... as forced non-participants being price suppressed and forced to remain non-participants, for now, as "not money"... but, sort of an "anti-money" to the form of "store of anti-value" that fiat has a tendency to become under a scheme in which debt obligations are used as money, in the expectation the underlying debt is risk free... when it is not.
So, in generational terms... gold and silver remain on sale in a forced fire sale that's been ongoing since the invention of post convertiblity theories of money, economics, and finance... perhaps now reaching natural limits...
Long oil, until not... and then trade the cycle...
Accumulate gold and silver... until... hmmm. The kids will thank you... ?
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