At this moment I do not know how delving into the whys and whereofs can help get the planet to resolution where as few Ukrainians die as possible and simultaneously setting up the stage for durable peace that does not involve more deaths later.
There, as the professor pointed out, appears to be no off-ramp, and enough involved front-line and second-line nation-states might wish to see a long war.
Without seeing a clear way to even constructing an off-ramp so that (1) fewest possible Ukrainians die, (2) durable peace secure, and (3) no tail-risk to a wider war later, perhaps best hold off on all else actions that might murky up the situation even more.
The bottom-line issue at the crux of the center of the kernel is that TINOR (THERE IS NO OFF-RAMP).
A bunch of self-serving nations safe behind dying Ukrainians ganging up on Team Russia cornered is likely a bad idea, as was the case once in Afghanistan for Russia, and once in same Afghanistan for USA / Nato, and those two episodes did nothing for the Afghanistan people, except being rug-pulled twice in one generation.
I would like to see the Ukraines avoid being Afghanistan-ed, but I do not know that such an outcome is possible until the Ukraines leveled as was Afghanistan and Syria and Iraq and and and
Do you see a path that allows Ukrainians avoid the fate of those other unfortunate nation-states?
I do not.
Fighting Russia in the Ukraines guarantees the destruction of the Ukraines, and more than likely set up the Baltic states and Eastern and perhaps even Western Europe for wobbling if not destruction.
Remember, Russia is a peer nuclear power to the US, and should Russia take out a few minor states, what can US possibly do?
Whatever changes Russia must come from within, and I suspect, and it is possible, that Putin is a moderate amongst the Russian elite. |
