Notebook component shortages worsening on China lockdowns
digitimes.com
Last quarter, SIMO's story was that demand is stronger than their ability to supply. Based on the current order outlook and manufacturing allocation from TSMC to SIMO, they expected to grow sales 20%-30% in 2022. If TSMC gave them more allocation, they would grow 2022 sales more than that.
Since then, we've had indications of order cancellations in the PC and cell phone segments (maybe bad as it may reduce SIMO's backlog, or may be good as it seems more like TSMC can give SIMO more allocation in 2022), lockdowns in China due to Covid (probably bad if it mucks up the supply chain, maybe a nothing burger if the affected companies are not SIMO customers), and NO new news from SIMO.
My hunch is the cancellations in some segments will free up TSMC to give SIMO more allocation, and therefore SIMO will ship more controllers in 2022 than they expected to ship when they did the Q1 call. They've already pre-announced Q1 sales and gross margins, both of which are going to be ahead of their guidance. I think they likely raise revenue forecast for the remainder of the year as they (hopefully) received more allocation from TSMC. Exact same thing happened last year.
I'll also point out that SIMO is guiding Q1 2022 sales to about $245m. The top of SIMO's full year 2022 guidance is sales of $1.2 billion. It means just to hit the top of their guidance given in the Q1 call that SIMO will need to do $322m on average over the remaining Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2022. Methinks they are going to raise their full year revenue guidance when they report in early May, so the conclusion is ......get ready folks, quarterly sales are going to the proverbial "next level"........ |
