Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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Hawkmoon

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (172332)	4/25/2022 7:30:32 PM
From: POKERSAM	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 220818

Being long in a bear market is scary. So I find that I often leave some on the table when I sell longs and go short. Maybe its old age or maybe I am just a coward. Or maybe I see where my greatest risk is and act accordingly. In a bear market your risk is to the upside. You can get caught long and the market will not rescue you. It will run to the downside and leave you hanging. In a bear market if you get caught short in a bounce the market will come back down and rescue you. It is just the opposite in a bull market. Anyway, 4245 was a pretty extreme top miss, I thought it was a shorter four and it turned out to be a two, but it will not look so bad when wave [iii] of 3 down unleashes its power to the downside and rescues me. I miss some at very bottoms and some at the very tops but I try to get the meat in the middle. Knowing what kind of market you are in makes a big difference. In a bear market I do better at calling bottoms than tops. In a bull market I do better at calling tops. In both markets you are in a sense moving forward. In a bull it is five waves up and three waves down. So you are moving forward to the upside. Targets for motive waves (one, three, five up) are pretty easy to calculate) Then the correction of three ways down is pretty easy to calculate, all with high odds of being correct. In a bear it is all just the opposite. You are still moving forward but you are moving forward to the downside. It is now five ways down and three up. It doesn't hurt my feelings at all if anyone thinks this is all nuts. It has taken me 25 years to get this crazy and if this is insanity, I hope to get worse as time goes by. LOL

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