Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

SPY 691.72

-0.1%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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Mongo2116

To: POKERSAM who wrote (172864)	4/29/2022 11:00:40 PM
From: Turtles_win	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 221917

That by itself does not say too much. I made the assumption that the bounce off the lows yesterday was significant. Not so much really. I was wrong but the real deal is that the previous lows have not been penetrated to the downside. Very close, but it did not happen yet. If the market rocks to the upside next Monday and has a big up week, then a new upleg may have begun. HOWEVER, the closing CBOE equity-only put/call ratio this evening was 0.78. That is not reasonable for a DJIA down nearly 1000 pts. If this is still a bull market, a day like today followed by a similar day a few days back would have resulted in a p/c of 1.00 or approx. Also, if the market was actually bottoming , setting up to launch a large leg up, many people invested in the market would have sold and would swear they would never buy a stock again. Obviously that is a loooonnnggg way from happening. A solid bottom has not been set. Not the type from which large legs up that last a while are launched. However, the bear/correction that may have completed today may be enough for an intermediate term pretty strong rally that might take the market to new highs. If the market moves to new highs without setting a solid bottom, then it will probably crash. And that crash may not be recovered from. Imagine if we have a severe stock bear market and a severe bond bear market at the same time. Imagine all the pension funds and self-managed 401K plans with target date funds with both bonds and stocks both of which decline over a long period. I just think we may have a vigorous bear market rally before the bad stuff kicks in. BUT, we could continue straight down to the bottom from here. That is also possible, although I do not think that will happen.

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