Hi Rim,
Great to hear your plans continue to a fun campout in July.
This last year I've been overwhelmed with the restoration of my 1955 Chevrolet Nomad that I purchase as a young 17 year old kid on July 5th 1970.
I have a due date of July 9th for it to debut in The 2022 National Nomad Convention, to be held in Brookfield Wisconsin - mere 50 miles from my Wisconsin home. Been a hectic job of finding backordered parts and coordinating a small handfull of master craftsmen who are mostly all older than me and retiring or worse yet passing away, along with their era specific mechanical knowledge. I have been blessed with a solid work effort by four very skilled craftsmen who are all busting butt, to get the project finished. Me, I'm writing some ungodly expensive checks. That's OK I've waited and planned for this ,and am on budget and schedule sort of. LOL
If accomplished on time, I'll be due some blue sky relaxation and trekking. I will definitely keep you appraised.
Thank you for the reminder, it has been a fun and often remembered wonderful gesture by you to me.
Thanks to AJ for forwarding the mail
So, as a supplement to your excellent chart contained in this post, I would like to note a coincidental event that occurred on date of 1/16/2022. On 1/13 to 1/24 a seven day decline in the market created a put/call ratio spike during that time period. That time period, generated a put call ratio spike to a high of 1.25, a relatively high mark that one would have to go back to the Covid induced decline of 2020 to see another occurrence to that level.
The low point on 1/24/22 @ 4222.62 (spx) and a high spike on the put/call ratio (1.25) signaled a bottom of sorts. It induced a lot of fear over the next month, which enabled some very opportunistic purchases/and or inflated put sales.
The above referenced spike is shown on this long term chart: Message 33812937.
Including that low on 1/24, the next 5 days went sideways and had a large daily swing in price. This marked a wonderful buy zone(what I view as the ending of 3 of C).
A counter trend wave 4 of C followed and ended on your chart at 456.70. The final wave 5 of 5 of C finished up at a marginal new low at 409.37 on 2/24/22ish
Quick take is, we're in a very opportune time to be buying some very discounted stocks, or sell some very inflated puts on your favorite stock.
I only sell puts on stocks I'd love to own. For the market to bottom the week after a monthly expiration date is a very neat way for one to buy a stock at below market prices and get it assigned two days before the bottom of the market (the ending of a corrective C wave) is just one of those head scratching Really? perfect buy times in life - I suspect Wall Streeters like those. LOL.
So far the market has offered up a marginally better 1.30 put/call ratio on 4/22/22. I think we're wallowing through a 3 of 5 of C and due imminently a weak 4 up of 5 of C and then the final low of 5 of 5 of C will come.
I wonder if we'll be so lucky as to have this next market's low happen the week after the expiration of next month - May 20th?
Markets never repeat, but many say they rhyme.
May's expiration is just a mere 20 days away.
The premiums of puts currently are quite inflated.
Any down draft between now and next week should keep or increase that fear premium.
After that THETA should begin to quickly do its thing.
We either get to keep a nice chunk of cash, or hopefully use that money to by a well timed discounted stock.
Interesting that the number of days between the 419.46 low and the 409.37 final low was 22 trade days.
Pretty close - the difference is two trade days and some weekend days - pretty close.
Thanks again for keeping that offer out there. I'm trying like heck to be there!
Just a coincidental observation.
Thanks for sharing your great charts! I always learn from them.
Bob |
