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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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ajtj99

Lee Lichterman III

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (58793)	5/4/2022 11:51:51 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 97327

Signatures of recessions: 1. S&P 500 below its level of 6 months prior 2. employment: total nonfarm payrolls growth below 1% year-over-year 3. GDP growth below 2% year-over-year 4. Treasury yield curve flat 5. Junk Bond Spread: widening of credit spreads on corporate debt versus 6 months prior 6. ISM Purchasing Managers Index below 54 Since I last reviewed this a month ago, #1 has now joined 4,5 in signaling recession, probably in 2023. PMI is declining, the latest GDP was negative. Of the 6 indicators, only employment is solidly bullish. The price of copper is a sensitive indicator of the global economy. If it goes below the $4-5 channel, that would be very bearish. Other indicators: Inflation tradingeconomics.com Fed balance sheet tradingeconomics.com Copper schrts.co Wage growth atlantafed.org Consumer Spending tradingeconomics.com Consumer Sentiment tradingeconomics.com ISM PMI (reported monthly tradingeconomics.com):

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