| | | Thanks BK. I obviously don't take making public calls about a bearish stance lightly. But THIS is a student body move lower. The nature of the patterns that made this call a necessity (a 2 year up channel that broke down, followed by the failure to hold the 4194 reversal target), required me to issue a level 10 (on scale of 1 to 10) warning about the change in the fundamental nature of the market.
Bear market rallies are ferocious, and we definitely haven't seen the last of them. But they are designed to take back all that the bull market gave in the first place, and create CERTAINTY in the vast majority of traders that the bear market is OVER.
The bullish call I made from the 4194 area back in February was correct, as the market found its footing and retraced 74% of the decline off the 4818 highs as it rallied to 4637 SPX. The subsequent stunning & unpredictable failure of that rally, and decline from the March 29th high, was the true start to this bear market, but couldn't be discerned as such until 2 closes below 4194. New lows for the year (2022) provided further crucial E-Wave confirmation. Who is to blame for the seemingly premature ending to this bull market? The people who rigged the election? The people who rigged COVID & orchestrated the decimation of public health worldwide? The people who forced Putin's hand, leading to the beginning of WWIII? The people who engineered shortages in every major commodity, and destroyed supply and transportation chains and structures? Should this not have been expected under a Communist takeover?
Significant retraces back towards that 4637 Mar 29th high can still occur. Could it be retraced 100%? Absolutely. If 4637 were exceeded to the upside, I would have to retreat from a bearish posture. Absent that event, I firmly believe we are in the largest degree bear move witnessed since the 1787 beginning of US Stock Market History, as 5 Waves from the 1787 Origins completed on Mar 29th, 2022 in a truncated 5th. The last leg of this historical, legendary bull run went out with a whimper... not a bang, although the last 5 years had enough upside fireworks (think CRYPTO) to completely dwarf all other parabolic bubble markets since TULIPMANIA and The SOUTH SEA BUBBLE from nearly 500 years ago.
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