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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

SPY 675.24

-1.2%

Nov 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (173797)	5/12/2022 10:28:50 PM
From: Hawkmoon	6 Recommendations Read Replies (4) of 218428

It's my opinion that any upside for the foreseeable future is merely a tradeable rally in an overall bear market.. And folks need to get accustomed to that. Look.. we have a soaring USD due to the Fed having it's hands tied due to chasing inflation. The only way the Fed can reduce inflation is to crash the economy, create a recession, and drain the "wealth effect". That's the only way they will manage to get interest rates under control. We're already seeing several countries around the world going bankrupt and preparing to default on their USD denominated debt.. It's a choice between feeding their people and paying off their debts. That will only create a greater shortage of USD in the global economy. Turkey is going to blow up at some point and that is going to turn into another Greece scenario, IMO.. Sri Lanka is already there. Tunisia is on it's way.. and so many others too numerous to name.. Get ready.. Anyone watching the Euro? It's dropping like a rock, just like the Yen, and we'll see USD/Euro parity within the next few months, if it doesn't reverse. China's CNY is also starting to devalue, and we already know about it's disastrous housing market and COVID lockdowns.. Think that's not going to have an impact on the US economy? The Fed will have to continue to raise until the Fed Funds rate is at, or above the 2 year yield. That's just baked into the cake, especially with inflation at this 40 year high. They just have no other choice, IMO. So all of this talk of a "bottom" is just wishful thinking.. We're heading for a VERY deep recession, and likely a global depression. The first sign of a bottom will have to be seeing a major VIX spike, IMO. And we haven't seen that yet. We need to adjust our trading to fit the overall global economic environment. Just my .02.. Hawk

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