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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: Phil Cressman who wrote (5368)2/9/1998 8:08:00 PM
From: DDS-OMS  Read Replies (1) of 23519
 
VVUS has had this huge short position for over a year. It actually dropped about 10% last month. I wouldn't count on short covering to raise the stock price--but could add to any upward momentum--if that ever occurs. The fact that shorts haven't covered in spite of a 77% drop in less that 2 months after its 10/06/97 high, would seem to indicate they expect still lower prices. Take your time buying VVUS. Elliott wave analysis shows VVUS to have completed a wave 4 retracement @ $15+ and IF it is starting the 5th wave down, indications are a low of 8.5-9.0 can be expected. I suppose Evan will come out of seclusion and call me crazy again, Message 2928830

but in this post:

Message 2932900

Elliott wave analysis called the low @ 9 3/4 pretty close--between 8 1/2 and 10 5/8. At the time of that post, the low was 13+ and if that had held, would have had to retrace to at least 17---but when it put in a much lower low, the present $15 was enough of a retracement to be valid.

Elliott waves aren't 100% correct, obviously, and failed wave 4 retracements occur a lot--meaning that instead of turning back down to a new low, the stock goes on higher and never makes its 5th wave low. However, so far, this is a classic 5 waves down--with one wave to go.

There is an excellent explanation of the psychology of the 5 wave cycle at hardrightedge.com

Take the time to fully explore this site--it is a helluva site for trading techniques.
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