2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 368.29

+0.6%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (187797)	5/20/2022 2:09:10 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) of 217575

Did my own bit of chart work again today... Differs from theirs mostly in not using linear functions in projections... the downward channel they have depicted... is in reality, in charting the SPY at least... a dislocated parabolic function... which looks now like it is driving a non-symmetric reversal pattern... Linking the chart tells with "fundamentals" seems useful less in defining patterns in the short term... but, more useful perhaps in defining a few limits in expectations... I note what I have charted is not as precipitous as was the decline realized in 2008... which my prior chart work had suggested had us "at that precipice" where we might see an October 2008 style decline begin to unfold this week, or next week... moving straight down for three weeks in a row, taking out another 10% of the market value each week... type thing... Today's move lower, if it holds... eliminates "support working at preventing" that sort of a move... not that charts define larger perception of reality that completely... as if the "potential" in "support" is made of anything more substantive than aggregate opinion... which charts don't impose upon us as limits. But, this week is not a validation, yet... that we're going to see those accelerated 2008 style moves charts suggest are possible on current trend... My chart today ignores that prior look with 2008 references... and is entirely self referential. But, I did not note as clearly as I should have in the chart I posted... that ALL it shows... is the reversal from the December top and the BEGINNING of the reversal "taking the top off" of the prior year excess... when only removing all of the gains posted (based on error in expectations) in 2021... fails dramatically in properly revaluing the market to correct to the nature and direction of changes that have been imposed in the economic reality in 2021. The market celebrated that change imposed early on... by going on a bubble bender... when it turns out the change we got... was the opposite in value as the change the market priced in... The enthusiasm of 2021... wasn't built on expecting the policy choices being made would give us WW III, $6 gasoline with that likely not a limit... double digit inflation continuing to accelerate long after the Fed said it would peak and then decline... and now, looming global food shortages that appear they ensure millions will die of starvation... So, "a start being made" at "undoing the overly optimistic expectations of 2021"... is all that chart contains... I think that chart does not contain any of the limits it appears it directly adopts only as a time function of the recency bias in the start date... Take that chart down to the bottom...back to where it was at the end of 2020... and then ask... how much lower should it be... given reality is still the opposite of what it has priced in ?

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