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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 379.91+0.4%Nov 11 4:00 PM EST
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Pogeu Mahone
To: Maurice Winn who wrote (187842)5/21/2022 10:42:26 AM
From: arun gera1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 217694
 
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Tell me Arun, what do you think is a good outcome from where we are today? I guess you would write "Unconditional surrender by Russia>

Practically, Russia will have gained the additional territory they wanted, but it may be a pyrrhic victory. Because, Sweden, Finland, and half of Ukraine will be on the NATO side. And the NATO alliance could get stronger. Ukraine will get a Marshall plan equivalent boost. And that will make Ukrainian oligarchs very rich. As Ukraine has a highly educated population, there may be more manufacturing and IT companies setup there. So ordinary Ukrainians might climb out of the destruction in about 10 years.

Russia may lose a little clout because they only won partially. The West will go on with regular business with Russia in 5-10 years. But 5-10 years of handicap will make Russia less competitive with other advancing nations of similar size.

At one time USSR at least inspired an idealism based on communism. And 1950s USSR seemed at least equal to the capitalist west and way over the poor third world. Russia does not have those clear advantages any more. They do have a huge land mass, natural resources, nuclear weapons, and a well educated workforce. So they will survive or even thrive if constructive nationalism happens.

-Arun
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