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Politics : Military Strategy Board
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (11729)5/22/2022 12:08:34 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 20405
 
I only watched part of it. Its long and the voices are a cacophony (although I guess I could have turned off sound and just read the subtitles, having just those without the video would have been much quicker but the video gives a bit of additional context)

It was apparently a provincial government group, not central. To the extent that its actually true/reliable (the video is what it proports to be and the subtitles reflect what's actually being said), it seemed to be more about the organization setup to properly enable an attack and less about an actual timetable for an attack. OTOH that could have been included in part I didn't watch.

Personally I don't see a near term attack happening. OTOH I also didn't anticipate Russia's attack on Ukraine until the force build up and even after that I expected it to be a more limited attack. And I could be as wrong here as I was with that situation.

If it was to be this summer it would probably have to be late summer. An amphibious operation against any significant opposition across 100 or more miles of ocean takes a lot of preparation, much of which would be visible from space. Smaller attacks against the close in islands, air and missile attacks without any attempt at landing and/or a blockade could happen quicker and with less warning.
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