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Politics : Military Strategy Board
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Hawkmoon
To: Hawkmoon who wrote (11732)5/24/2022 1:12:45 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation   of 20405
 
Listening to it and then reading it earlier I thought it might be an exercise. Today I saw it posted with commentary somewhere else and one of the comments pointed out that in the transcript it says - "Let's move on to the next issue, the mobilization planning exercise." - Which might strengthen the argument for it being an exercise.

Of course holding exercises increases the ability to carry out an actual attack. If we knew somehow that there was not even exercises my estimate of the chance of an attack happening in the near term would go down a lot compared to a state of uncertainty about whether or not there were any such exercises, and knowing for certain that such exercises are happening increases the percent chance I would give such an attack to happening by a bit. (By a bit rather than a lot, since if we didn't know I'd guess that such exercises probably have happened.)
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