Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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Dec 18 4:00 PM EST

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GROUND ZERO™

Hawkmoon

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (174842)	5/28/2022 10:51:34 AM
From: Sdgla	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 220388

UDSA Raises Food Price Forecast to Highest Level in 42 Years, Third Wave of U.S. Food Inflation Will Dwarf Prior Price Increases May 27, 2022 \| Sundance \| 314 Comments Have you ever seen egg prices at $1 per egg range, or $12/doz? Hold on a few months and perhaps you will. That is the context for the scale of food price increases the USDA is now starting to predict. The highest predicted change in food costs in well over 40 years, that’s the USDA warning in their revised May “Food Price Outlook”. [ DATA HERE] This month the USDA just re-re-revised the forward price outlook, and things are grim. It likely doesn’t come as a surprise to many CTH readers because we have been discussing the convergence of events since October of 2021, when we first were able to predict Wave-1 (Dec/Jan), and Wave-2 (March/Apr) inflation. However, the underlying data for Wave-3 is double the prior two phases. Keep in mind the data is national & skewed toward low estimations as represented by (+). When the USDA predicts egg prices increasing by 19.5 to 20.5% (from where those prices are now), there will be regions with much higher retail increases than estimated. Just two months ago, USDA had egg inflation at 2.5%-3.5% range, year over year. Again, that’s the scale of change; from a 3.5% forward outlook to a 20.5% forward outlook effective right now. Food at home (grocery store) prices: up 7% to 8% in this monthly review, versus the April outlook of a rise of 5% to 6%. That means the USDA is predicting the highest grocery store price rise since 1980 when prices rose 8.1% (prices rose 7.2% in 1981). There is no reason to think the USDA forecast will not rise again in June. (more…)

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