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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (174983)	5/31/2022 10:56:16 AM
From: skinowski	4 Recommendations Recommended By #Breeze Hawkmoon Kahlua SGJ Read Replies (1) of 220065

Hi, Hawk! I recall, many years ago we had some good conversations. My understanding is that WRT Taiwan, the principal idea of both - the US and China - has been strategic ambiguity. It worked fine, for many decades. I still can’t see any real reasons as to why the PRC would want to invade them. They have good relations, the majority of the Taiwanese prefer the status quo to continue - and relatively small minorities stand either for independence - or, to the contrary - for a merger with the PRC. Their trade last year was 125 billion. Their economies are close. I think this is far, far too much to give up only to distract the public from recent economic turbulence. And even that doesn’t sound too catastrophic - they’re projecting a 5.5% growth for this year. Some argue that it is unlikely they’ll succeed. But, at least it’s not a disaster. tradingeconomics.com Add to that having to face very dangerous hostilities vs. the US… and, I think, invading Taiwan would be rather unacceptably costly. It would derail China - economically and politically. Given a choice, they won’t do it. How the US - with our huge (and accelerating) debt could bail out the PRC economy… is not really clear. I hope, the “consensual ambiguity” continues… and relations between all interested parties stabilize.

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