Most chemical fertilizers rely on natural gas as a “feedstock” or key ingredient in the production process. Through a series of reactions, hydrogen in the methane gas (CH4) is transferred to form ammonia (NH3.) Nitrogen in the ammonia is essential for chlorophyll and amino acid synthesis inside all plants. Although our atmosphere is mostly nitrogen, plants cannot use free nitrogen. Nature has ways to get nitrogen into the soil as ammonia, but it’s not enough. Chemical fertilizers solve this problem, and have supported massive increases in crop yields (and thus, population) in the last century. Without chemical fertilizers, most of us would starve to death.

When renewables such as “wind” or “hydro” fail, you have to burn more gas for power, and again, the problem with burning more gas is that—if you do it in “unplanned” fashion, without raising production, finding reliable new import channels, or keeping more in storage—you have less of it left for fertilizer production. Even if you are compensating by burning coal not gas, you are “snatching” that coal away from someone else who might have to burn gas. We cannot get around this problem. Even “just” a coal shortage, means a fertilizer shortage.