Jumping from 17% to perhaps 15% would have been more believable than all the way to 7%, or vise versa if they originally had predicted an 8% demand and now changed it to 7%, one (at least I) would have believed in their techniques a bit more!
Well, well, well -- if they had reduced the number from 1.17 to 1.15, we would say that nobody can project with such fine precision. But if they reduce it from 1.17 to 1.07, we say that we cannot believe it because the decline is too much! Damned if they do, damned if they don't, eh?!
All this is not to say that we have to believe in what these guys say. However, the market tends to gyrate based on their pronouncements. Keep that in mind.
The conclusion? Semiconductor stock prices undergo not just the well-known boom-and-bust cycles that are typical of cyclical stocks, but also "cyclets" embedded within these larger cycles, when people alternate between euphoria and indifference, based on whether they think boom-times are coming or whether bust-times are ahead. And for inferior-quality stocks like LSI (with no steady earnings growth worth bragging about), they offer great opportunities to sell high and buy back low.
Dipy. |
