Second named storm of the season could spin to life in the East Pacific
By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist
Jun. 12, 2022
Many businesses have been looking for weather-resistant signs after losing their old ones to hurricanes, but due to global supply chain disruptions, finding the materials to create them is a struggle.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially began on May 15, and since then, one destructive storm roared to life in the basin. Much of the eastern Pacific Ocean had been devoid of troubling tropical features since Hurricane Agatha's prolific landfall in late May, but tropical activity in the basin began to heat up once again early last week.
AccuWeather's tropical forecasters first identified an area for potential tropical development during the first weekend of June and have been closely monitoring future development in the days since. Now, these same forecasters say it is becoming increasingly likely that an organized tropical feature will spin to life in the coming days.
"Disorganized clusters of showers and thunderstorms are stretched from the west coast of Central America westward to well south of Hawaii," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
These showers and thunderstorms show that the environment is primed for development, but organized tropical development cannot happen until several factors come together.
Typically, in order to achieve organized tropical development, an area of interest needs a combination of warm waters, low wind shear and an abundance of moist, unstable air. Once these conditions are in place, it will take a "nudge" from an atmospheric feature to send development off to the races.
 "A tropical wave is expected to spur development along the southern and western coast of Mexico over the next few days," Pydynowski explained.
Once this tropical wave enters a conducive environment in place off the southern coast of Mexico, it will likely be able to become an organized tropical system. Forecasters say that development can occur between June 13 and June 15.
As the potential system develops, it is likely to gain enough organization and strength to become a tropical depression and ultimately a tropical storm.
The next tropical storm in the East Pacific will be given the name Blas.
 The level of intensity of impacts on land will depend on just where and how quickly this potential tropical system ultimately develops.
"Any system that develops may parallel the southern and western coast of Mexico and potentially bring impacts including heavy rain, rough surf and gusty winds," Pydynowski cautioned.
Development closer to the Mexican coastline will mean greater impacts for coastal communities. However, if development occurs closer to June 14, the system of concern will likely be located farther from the region's coastline and impacts on populated areas will be more limited in nature. In the latter scenario, forecasters say it is not out of the question that the potential storm could become a hurricane.
"If the potential tropical system manages to take on a more westward track and move far enough away from land, it may be able to strengthen into a hurricane," Pydynowski cautioned. "If it forms and tracks closer to land, its ability to strengthen will be limited by Mexico's terrain."
Additionally, forecasters say another tropical system can bubble to life in a similar area of interest late this week. Right next door in the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather forecasters are also keeping a close eye on a zone in the western Caribbean Sea for potential development late in the week.
 Regardless of the degree of development, the potential tropical feature may ultimately bring indirect impacts to portions of the mainland United States late this week.
As two atmospheric features converge late this week, moisture from the tropical entity is likely to be pulled northward into portions of the Southwestern states, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva
"Moisture from the system could enhance the start to the North American monsoon season," DaSilva added.
The North American monsoon officially begins on June 15 and typically ushers moisture back into the southwestern U.S., a region that is currently abysmally dry. Much of the Southwest is in the midst of severe to exceptional drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. |
