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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 244.25-2.0%Nov 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: winam who wrote (1492)2/10/1998 7:48:00 AM
From: John May  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
winam,

With all due respect, the further down the road one takes a scenario, the greater the degree of error. You assume up front, however, that the book market will shrink which contradicts articles I've read. In fact, thus far E-commerce has stimulated the sale of more books.

You assume, in the out years of your scenario, that BKS and BGP will catch and overtake AMZN in E-book sales. This, too, runs counter to what I've read (in fact I posted here recently a Jumpiter Communications article on the subject) that early comers to E-commerce will have the advantage of having secured the high ground of visibility.

I think a $15 to $20 billion Internet book pie in 2008 might well mean a $4 to $5 billion slice for AMZN, but my second thought is that the degree of error in predicting 2008 E-commerce is too great to debate.
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