| | | True. I just finished running charts and we are pretty much finally back to the long term trend lines that I was pounding the table about months ago when everyone was saying this time is different, it's a new error/era, etc.
Now I have to wonder if we over shoot to the downside due to the stretched guitar string theory of it snaps under as much as it snapped over or what. Regardless, even with skyrocketing inflation, bond risks and other contagions that can cause havoc short and midterm, if I was younger, I could justify starting to nibble on long term purchases to build a portfolio. Unfortunately, I'm not young so shorter term oscillations and pain matter.
The long term lines are just that, long term trends that we should follow eventually. That said, there were decades we have been under and decades we were over. We have spent the last 30-40 years over it so we could very well go under it for quite a while.
We never got to my VIX 22 target before tanking so I don't know if we'll get to my VIX 40+ target before we bottom. Tomorrow could prove to be more than an interesting day.
I was looking at weekly and monthly charts tonight even though it's only Tuesday just to see if I was getting signals yet (I'm not) and was in awe of just how low some stuff can get in a serious drop. UTEs could drop 2/3s, high dividend funds over 50% etc. The high dividend funds are starting to really get hit this week now. I was getting tempted to nibble as we get to what appears from recent history as bargains and forget that they are still far from cheap if this does get serious.
Speaking of which, the gurus of the bubble times are still buying. All the threads I watch just keep buying all the way down.
Looking at those EMA charts I posted earlier, another thing that caught my eye was that during those periods, we tanked into mid July so there was no end of quarter manipulation to make midyear statements look pretty and no 4th of July ramp job, at least from what I could see on those charts. There may have been a one day prior ramp too small to show up but nothing to write home about.
Anyway, I'm just rambling as thoughts go through my head. |
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