ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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ajtj99

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (62557)	6/15/2022 2:51:29 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 97412

75% odds of recession in 2023. Previous guess 50%. I had been trying to construct a bullish future: inflation peaking now, terminal Fed Funds rate doesn’t need to go over 3%. That’s now unlikely. Historically, rapidly rising interest rates cause recessions. Slowly rising rates are compatible with a bull market: Message 33711845 Also, I have to change my belief in Fed signaling. They had explicitly ruled out 75bp, then did it. Signaling recession: 1. S&P 500 below its level of 6 months prior 4. Treasury yield curve flat 5. Junk Bond Spread: widening of credit spreads on corporate debt versus 6 months prior. Not yet signaling recession, but probably will do so soon: 6. ISM Purchasing Managers Index below 54 Not signaling recession: 2. employment: total nonfarm payrolls growth below 1% year-over-year 3. GDP growth below 2% year-over-year Also, the causes of supply chain chaos show no sign of ending anytime soon: China lockdowns, Ukraine war, energy shortages.

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