As Rob S has pointed out and others have stated:
For major IDTI stock appreciation it's execution, execution, execution
Some good news and feedback from a recent Lehman interview:
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** 2/9 LEHMAN BROTHERS HOSTED A MANAGEMENT UPDATE WITH IDTI CEO LEONARD PERHAM AND V.P. OF TREASURY/INVESTOR RELATIONS BRIAN BOISSEREE.
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IDTI WAS VERY UPBEAT REGARDING PROSPECTS FOR THE CENTAUR WINCHIP C6 (X86) - ONE OF IDTI'S TWO KEY OBJECTIVES FOR DIVERSIFICATION FROM MEMORY CHIPS. IDTI indicated the outlook is increasingly positive for the C6 after having shipped less than 100K units in Dec. FY3Q98, and anticipating unit volumes of 100K+ in Mar. FY4Q98 and roughly 300K-400K in June FY1Q99. By Mar. FY4Q99, IDTI expects the C6 to exceed 25% of total sales (likely over $50 mil.) with ASPs exceeding $60. Further, IDTI indicated the company could ship 3 mil. units in the Mar. FY99 fiscal year, which would suggest a far greater revenue contribution ($180 mil. for FY99) than we have presently modeled, and suggests IDTI is on track in its diversification program. Our model estimates C6 FY99 annual revenues of $67 mil. ($11 mil. in June 1Q99, $14 in Sept. 2Q99, $17 mil. in Dec. 3Q99 and $25 mil. in Mar. 4Q99). IDTI also indicated it may announce a foundry relationship in the near future. We have heard it could be IBM, and view this as a positive development.
AS WE INDICATED EARLIER, WE ARE DISAPPOINTED THAT IDTI HAS TARGETED ITS CLEAR LOGIC PRODUCT LINE (DROP IN REPLACEMENT PARTS FOR ALTR CHIPS) AT ALTERA'S (ALTR-$36 3/4; NR) 8K PRODUCT FAMILY, WHICH IS A SMALLER AND SHRIKING MARKET VS. THE FASTER GROWING 7K, 9K AND 10K FAMILIES. The Clear Logic product line is IDTI's other major objective in its diversification efforts. We believe the ALTR 8K, a line we size at just $15 mil. per quarter, peaked at $24 mil. per quarter almost a year ago. We had anticipated Clear Logic to target the 7K family ($74 mil. in quarterly sales). It will take several months for IDTI to reposition for higher growth, and the company has indicated they will attack another ALTR line in FY99. By mid-calendar 1999, Clear Logic products will compete with 50%-75% of ALTR's products. |
