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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing

PICK 46.27

-1.4%

Nov 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4438)	6/18/2022 12:11:57 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) of 10585

It takes 18 months for all these rate hikes to have the full desired effect so I am not going to be very impressed if earnings hold up in the coming quarter. A true bottom in the stock market means that things cannot get any worse and that PMIs are improving - though still bad and weak. What you are talking about is enough for a bear rally to SPX 4400 if earnings this quarter hold up better than expected and energy prices continue to soften. But the impact of these rate hikes will not be fully seen for quite a while yet. And that means the real bear market hasn't been seen yet. First condition for the end of the bear will be Fed pivot toward easing. But that will not be enough initially. My fear is that inflationary shocks lead to deflationary spirals and those take some time to get over. I think you are referring to a 15% bear market rally short term. That is possible, but a bit dangerous to play as there is risk the market slides into oblivion.

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