OGJ -- EIA : Global surplus crude oil production capacity decreases in 2022 .............................
June 24, 2022
EIA: Global surplus crude oil production capacity decreases in 2022
By OGJ editors
The result of declines in surplus production capacity in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries, global surplus crude oil production capacity in May 2022 was less than half its 2021 average, the US Energy Information Administration said in a report.
The report, Global Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity, provides estimates of global surplus crude oil production capacity in both OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries.
As of May 2022, surplus capacity in non-OPEC countries decreased by 80% compared with 2021, according to EIA’s preliminary estimates. In 2021, 1.4 million b/d of surplus production capacity was available in non-OPEC countries, about 60% of which was in Russia.
EIA estimates that all surplus production capacity in Russia was eliminated as of May 2022, due to the sanctions implemented after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. EIA determined that excess oil production capacity declined in other non-OPEC producing countries as well. As of May 2022, producers in non-OPEC countries had about 280,000 b/d of surplus production capacity.
“We define surplus capacity as the maximum existing capacity that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days. Our assessment of surplus crude oil production capacity does not include volumes of oil that are offline because of unplanned outages and disruptions, including sanctions, because these volumes cannot be brought to market voluntarily. For that reason, we exclude crude oil production that is offline in Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and now Russia, from surplus capacity estimates,” EIA explained.
Since 2003, EIA has tracked OPEC surplus capacity in a separate publication: the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA defines OPEC in terms of its current membership.
In its June STEO, EIA estimated that OPEC surplus capacity declined to 3 million b/d by May 2022 from 5.4 million b/d in 2021.
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