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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (63767)6/27/2022 11:43:37 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III2 Recommendations

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ajtj99
Sun Tzu

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I was up until 4 AM catching up an old Fed model database, inputting/cleaning/merging data until I couldn't keep my eyes open. I still have some massaging to do but preliminary outcome is that they are 7.86% behind the curve using their own system to stop inflation. Note this is their old model and so was pre MBS/direct market purchases of bonds and other new recent unconventional toys they are using.
As the market gets more and more addicted to the crack/heroin/sugar of easy money, I should note that they haven't reached target the last few tightenings. It is VERY clear how's that they were behind the curve and I don't have a clue why they didn't act sooner as the model started spiking up last year telling them they needed to act. They TOTALLY SCREWED UP!!!!! It's their model and it was yelling at them.
I overslept so am behind and trying to catch up.
Listened to a really good chat last night while working and totally agree with what they were saying. Basically, no matter the outcome of Fed policy, demand destruction, war ending etc., if inflation falls, commodities and oil drop, we are going to see it come back again soon as things turn around.
Capex spending has not kept up so there are going to be shortages in needed materials and oil. Misallocation by government trying to get green is just making the problem worse. There aren't enough needed materials to build what they want and all the supplies needed come from China while NATO is declaring them the number one threat and Biden is slapping tariffs on solar panels from them.
It's going to take at least a decade to build more refining, manufacturing. Meanwhile they are threatening the energy patch yet expecting them to be nice and donate capital and product out of the goodness of their hearts. LOL
Dallas Fed report was scathing according to zero hedge but I'm behind so I haven't read it myself yet so hesitate to comment on it.
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