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Strategies & Market Trends : Young and Older Folk Portfolio

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To: chowder who wrote (1005)	6/27/2022 7:19:44 PM
From: Rarebird	of 21974

I don't think the rally is sustainable either. However, I have a target of SPX $4400 this summer before it reverses and hits new lows. I'm looking at peak inflation and lower oil, gas and bond yields as the primary catalysts for the rally. Think summer of 2000. Also, I don't expect earnings to be as bad as the Bears visualize this quarter. Sentiment is hyper bearish and as long as this bear market rally talk remains bear market rally talk and not the start of a new Bull Market, the market will continue to rally. We are in a transition here from inflation concerns to recessionary deflation concerns. Markets will rally on any initial stages of deflation. But ultimately deflation will produce the next leg down in the late summer/ early Fall. We shall see..... I have increased my equity exposure quite a bit from very early last week. And I am net long: net short 3:1 at this point, whereas I have been for the most part market neutral this year. I'm a swing trader in bear markets and an investor during the early stages of a bull market. Swing trading means I hold anywhere from a few days to a few weeks or months. Can't win in a bear market unless you actively trade.

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