Re: ARET
I can't predict a share price that far out because it really depends on certain events that may or may not happen in the short-term.
Definite Positives:
1. They intend to become a current reporting company very soon. 10K for 1996 should be out soon. It should be arriving back from CPA firm any day. 10Q's for 1997 should be a couple of weeks after that.
2. They have indicated they will start using BusinessWire for their press releases after the financials.
3. They won't be issuing any press releases until financials come out.
4. They emerged from CH11 in August (or thereabouts) and since have gotten a $4M contract to build a hydroponics facility somewhere in Missouri.
5. They typically net around 7-10% on their contracts.
6. CEO holds 50% of outstanding shares. Not too interested in the stock price because, and I quote, "I'm not selling". He filed a 144 some time back, but never sold. 144's were filed 3 times in 1997, with no resulting sells.
Definite Negatives:
1. 150M shares outstanding, with 30-50M of those in the float.
2. Financials delayed currently. They were expected out nearly a month ago.
Possible Positives:
1. They have two contract proposals submitted to Fluor-Daniel (ticker FLR) with a value in the $10M range. One at least one of them, they are one of only two remaining bidders. Personally, I think the likelihood of them getting one of these is somewhat better than 50%.
2. Negotiations with Canadians to convert greenhouses to hydroponics facility.
3. Negotiations to become a dealer for some new kind of building materials. This one's sketchy. No idea what kind of materials. Possibly some lumber hybrid?
4. Other work in progress and bids submitted that they haven't reported either because of their smaller size or sitting on news until financials are out. FWIW, I consider it an almost 100% possibility they are sitting on news.
5. Historically shows strong support in the .020 range. In recent past, it has popped to over 3 cents twice from here and 5.4 cents once.
6. Though the float is quite large, it doesn't trade like it's so large. There are at least 5 people (I'm one of them) holding in excess of 1M shares pretty tightly. It just plain acts like the MMs don't have all that many shares, and they're not willing to short it.
That's all I can think of off the top of my head. For more, read the thread, or look for Stockid's DD later.... |
