This looks like a sell signal to me. Looks like high expectations are already built into the stock. If the 'whisper number' is a slight profit, as this article hints, and all that Informix can manage is the mid 7's, it's time to sit on the sidelines for a while.
The mid term (6 months to 1 year) to me looks good, but the longer term is very blurry, with stiff competition from Oracle and Microsoft, and (this really concerns me) little if any positioning or strategy from Informix marketing on how it plans to address these competitors going forward.
Their products really need to demonstrate break-away benefits relative to Oracle on the higher end and Microsoft on the low. In my opinion, at this point in time, they can demonstrate incremental superiority, but not the order-of-magnitude benefits that can assure me as an investor or as a prospect that I that I am better off going with Informix, and that the competition will not catch up any time soon. With Oracle8, I think Oracle technologically can demonstrate parity with Informix for 80-90% of that target market, and the ultimate decision will swing on other factors (one stop shop, safe choice, availability of trained resources, etc), which Oracle would typically win. On the lower end, SQL Server 7 will just plain dominate. Remember these prospects do not require custom datatypes or thousands of users digging through terabytes of data - their biggest needs are ease of administration; what we now consider 'basic' RDBMS features, which can be summed up in the ability to run enterprise apps such as Baan and SAP; and reasonable assurance that the technology will grow with the business (and we can be pretty sure that Microsoft will continue to improve SQL Server).
I also don't think Informix has generated the kind of excitement in the marketplace that would cause its prospects to overlook the bad past and look forward to the (hopefully) good future. There is a definite danger that its past financial problems and its current lack of marketing pizzazz may keep ifmx stock from staying in double digits for any prolonged period.
That said, I'll stay long because of my belief (from a few calls to the Psychic Friends Network) that the market needs will change, placing a greater premium over time for Informix strengths (data warehouse and database extensibility). If my hope materializes, we shall all be handsomely rewarded in the mid to longer term (assuming Informix can retain or build on its current lead). Without this kind of market change, Informix is toast. That perception is what may keep this stock down even if they come in with above-expectations numbers. I really hope that tomorrow I will eat this last statement. |
