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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House)
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To: Doug who wrote (4152)2/10/1998 3:49:00 PM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (2) of 6980
 
Doug: Bears out in April! Who said? Why? Which stocks?

My forecast allows for backing and filling as well as for major market sideswipes that could drive stock temporarily back to test 28.

For April, I would forecast a move from 37 pre-earnings to 41, with some volatility, as it hits turbulence from earnings warnings, analysts interpretations of the delayed Asian effect and declining profits for many companies and possibly disruption at Bay from major acquisitions.

But I was tongue in cheek with the precision of my timing and I think nobody can time when bears and bulls will emerge with that kind of precision. Even in a bear trend some stocks go up.

In a scenario of declining profits, tech stocks will shine, and the networking stocks will shine the brightest. 25-30% growth beats the market average of 7% any time. In a mildly deflationary environment, networkers will get pricing power from a stream of new products which will offer customers greater value through enhanced productivity.

Victor
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