Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Don Westermeyer who wrote (2656)	2/10/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) of 18691

Don, at a $12bn market value and 11mm subscribers, AOL is valued at only $1,090 per subscriber. Quite a bargain compared to MSPG at $1,381 per. Or even ELNK at just under $1,200 per. Oops, NETC sold out for about $400 per. I just knew I was being robbed. Seriously, how can a subscriber that generates, on average for AOL, less than $15/mo (including advertising to their eyeballs) be worth this much money? Six years to get your money back even if the $15 is pure profit, which it obviously is not. No speculative frenzy in this market... Nah! The S&P is only at 25 times earnings... Why not 30? After all, earnings are growing at the breakneck pace of 6-9% this year. Everything will just grow into the valuation. Asia? Who cares? War? So what?... Bob (just hoping I don't run out of money before this market makes 1987 look like a walk in the park)

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