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Politics : President Joe Biden
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (6462)7/27/2022 1:50:37 PM
From: Broken_Clock  Read Replies (1) of 12175
 
"A generation of European policymakers have gambled their continent’s energy security on faith in Russia as a reliable supplier of natural gas; a bet that has now turned very, very sour. There was another slew of negative headlines yesterday surrounding gas supply to Europe, with Russia continuing to cut flows in such a way that it first increases leverage, volatility and uncertainty, and then creates the risk for real gas shortages in Europe over the winter. This uncertainty has pushed the European Union to come to an agreement for all 27 members to voluntarily cut use of natural gas by 15% from August to March 2023. It is the competence of the member states to find actual ways on how to implement this, as all will have different industries and interest groups that they want to shield, but the cuts could be made binding with more heavy-handed measures in a supply emergency.

Demand destruction due to exorbitant prices will do much of the heavy lifting, but extremely tight supplies are still expected to persist. The front-month Dutch TTF contract is closing in on the levels reached when the war started, with German power prices for next year reaching new highs of 380 euros a megawatt-hour. This will see electricity turning from a utility into a luxury good for many Europeans, while it severely damages industrial competitiveness even before any more heavy-handed decisions to ration energy use will be made."

-Stefan Koopman, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
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