Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 244.25

-2.0%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: the Druid who wrote (1505)	2/10/1998 5:30:00 PM
From: doug doan	Read Replies (2) of 164684

Yes Overpriced It might very well go to 70 next week or even 80. I have no idea about what this stock will do on a daily basis. I am far more confident that over a longer term, lets say at least a year, that the price of the stock will more closely reflect the actual earnings of the company. Hence, either two things will happen: 1. the stock will plunge 2. AMZN will find a way to produce unexpected EARNINGS, not sales. My unoffical and purely arbitrary estimate is that there is a 99% chance of the first over the next year. Therefore, my bet is on the short side. This could change if AMZN was able to demonstrate a reasonable path to earnings within the next 12 months. Right now, it can only increase sales (which is not al bad) at the cost of increasing loses (not good at all). Put differently, the company needs to demonstrate to shareholders where profitability will come from and when. TO this date, it has done neither. Investors are giddy enough to keep buying a hot stock with exploding sales. Forgotten is the mountian of red ink in the wake. Time will tell.

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