one way of looking at it is just mean reversion ... largely a reduction back in line to 2019 levels. Seems that most everything is reverting back to 2019 levels – and maybe below. It would make logical sense, to me, as we need to pay for the depression expenditures we spent in 2020, taking out a massive, collective global loan which we charged to the indefinite future.
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Milton Friedman said in an excellent speech* on the topic, that throughout modern history, it has taken about 2 years for gov't expenditures to turn into inflation.
His main point on inflation was, quite simply, that the cause for inflation was always: gov't spending &/ the quantity of money.
If we look at M2 money**, it would seem to prove him quite right indeed this time around. (Sharp increase in quantity of money 2020, sharp increase in inflation ~18 months later (24 in Europe.))
Where the 70's inflation came from, though, isn't clear using Friedman's perspective, regardless of which money supply (M0, M1, M2, or M3) you look at.
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* youtube.com
** tradingeconomics.com
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