North American Vaccine Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine

NVX 1.133

-16.7%

Jan 16 3:59 PM EST

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To: Don W Stone who wrote (271)	2/10/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: Don W Stone	Read Replies (1) of 507

"ON TRACK FOR COMPLETING FINAL STEPS FOR LICENSURE" That is what the Company is saying TODAY. Nothing has changed other that the fact that we are that much closer to getting things wrapped up. What was at most about 3 months away is now about two months at most away. Take the Jan 9th Company news release and what a portfolio manager from the largest instititional holder of NVX had to say on Jan 12 in an interview with "the street" and you know why the Institutions aren't selling. Infact they are sitting there with a bucket picking up stock at between 18 and 19. I think it is possible that less than .5 million shares is all that remains in the individuals hands. So why aren't the shorts covering?. They can't IMO . Any activity moves the stock up or down big time. The volume has dries up completely. To day 11000, yesterday about the same. Now I answer the question . So what do you think, were is it going from here? First , IMO NVX has approval in the bag . The news release which was worked out with the FDA essentiaslly says they have it. Second, They have the all important LABEL . Third, The analyst that follow NVX all projected and EPS of well over $2.00 in the second year following approval, 1999. Four: NVX will collect some $60 million in milestone payments in the next year or so on top of all the product revenue. Five: NVX just could have 70% or more of the DTaP market before the year 2000. Their SAFETY record may get them there even sooner. DTaP-IPV definitely will make it happen anyway in 1999. Given those five points I don't think the Institutions will be parting with any stock any time soon. I think we will see NVX hit $50 or better within the year and from there, who cares. It will only be up. :-} If you are LONG it is time to be PATIENT. :-} If you are short start buying while nobody is looking to minimize the damage. :-{ NOw I didn't mention the $billion markets that the meningitis and GBS vaccines will be going after. They are not that far out . Meningitis could be on the mArket in the year 2000. Remember Connaught is a co developer with NVX. Oh and i didn't mention the very real possibility of a buyout by an Abbott or a Connaught. This stock isn't going down . Just no way. :-}

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