Re: TVs vs. Cars; Game Co's; Breakeven
This chat regarding PC-like sectors is proving very thought provoking for me. But then, I would expect no less from you Michael <g>.
. . My framework of comparing television, computers, and automobiles is centered around two principles: productivity and individual liberty.
. . A TV is a very simple device, essentially a multicast client, to use modern terminology. There's no interactivity to it other than a choice between preset programming. Once you've selected a channel, you sit back and passively receive prepared materials.
. . Now, automobiles are a different story. The car driver, like a PC user, exercises complete control over the device. YOU choose exactly what you want to do with it, when you want to do it, and where to go. Like PC's, the car is a productivity tool, one that most people require during the course of their employment activities. The automobile is an -empowering technology-.
. . Television is not.
. . The question is, are PC's an empowering technology? I believe the answer is clear. Our capabilities in information storage and retrieval, interpersonal communication, finance, writing, imaging, and other fields have leaped forward with the respective developments in computing. This very dialogue with you, Michael, would not exist without PCs.
. . Can you name one field of productive endeavor that has advanced substantially due to television?
. . Now, there is one characteristic that I believe cars, televisions, and PC's share. The utility of an automobile is proportional the support infrastructure. The quality and quantity of roads, the availability and cost of fuel, the availability of knowledgeable mechanics--these factors comprise the infrastructure of the automobile, and together with the automobile itself forms what Geoffrey Moore calls the "whole product". A car (or even off road vehicle) in isolation zero utility. You need support industries for refining oil into gasoline and for manufacturing spare parts. In this respect cars, TV's, and PC's are similar. A lone TV without a broadcast network industry is of course useless. A PC in the absence of the software and semiconductor industries is useless.
. . The automobile grew into what is today's largest global industry, because the car is an extension of individual liberty, the cornerstone of productive markets. It empowers the driver with superhuman transport capability, completely subject to the desire of its user. I think this is a very, very key point. The user subjugates the car to his or her will. Completely.
. . Analogously, the computer is an extension of individual liberty. It empowers the user with superhuman information processing capability. Obviously, television is nothing of the sort. Television is an excellent technology for broad dissemination of packaged information, but it has very little to do with individual liberty. It was an effective tool of communist propaganda in the Eastern block nations precisely for this reason.
. . One final point. The original force that drove market acceptance of both computers and automobiles--the original "killer app", if you will--was a productive force. The advent of television, on the other hand was driven by an entertainment force. A non-productive force.
. . Ultimately (and this is a long way down the road) the PC industry will grow into the world's largest business, surpassing automobiles as the digital infrastructure continues to expand. There are tremendous synergies at work because, just like every extra mile of road built adds incrementally to the utility of a car, every extra megabit of bandwidth, every new piece of software written, every new computer user, adds incrementally to the utility of all other PCs. This process will continue forever--thus increasing utility of PC's is unbounded, to use mathematical terms.
. . Well, that's enough about cars and TV's! <g>
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Regarding the game companies, I also have traded them all for many yeras. I've made money on SBYT, ERTS, ATVI, AKLM, and others. As an avid gamer (too avid!) I sometimes have the inside track on which games are most anticipated by the gaming community and bet accordingly. I think you may be overestimating the significance of the recent trend toward convergence between PC and console games. The fact is, popular PC games, when ported to consoles, don't sell well, and versa vice. The markets are too different.
. . As far as the price numbers, today you can buy a good PC gaming rig for about $1500, and the consoles are clustered around the $200 price point. But you know that. <g>
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I got into GZTC in the 4's and sold in the 10's. Unfortunately it was a relatively small position for me. I did miss the Jan 97 CPQ drop, i was a few months early to that party.
PX
P.S. Do you still like ISIP? Antisense is some extremely cool technology. |
