| | | Re <<Dark Side of China>>
Considering <<Waiting for the "GO" move, I assume no hurry>> Message 33946063
... It appears, in 20/20 hindsight, that the "GO" pebbles were deployed before Pelosi's landing in Republic of China's capital Taipei City of Taiwan island that which governs the Taiwan province and three bits of Fujian Province.
Now, after Pelosi moves, comes the dress rehearsal by the PRC of one and including I can imagine because even Bloomberg has imagined, and I suspect there is more to follow, of same and different nature(s), a sort of a bouquet of pebble placements choreographed going forward.
Keeping this post in mind including the posts it links to Message 33942393
We watch the Go game continuing, and keep in mind that all ventures a process and never an event, corollary of Sun Tzu's 36 theorems had he known what a corollary be.
The cardinal sin in Chinese history per the teachings for DDP, CCP, etc etc is just one, engaging with outsiders for an insider struggle, betraying not just nation, but the civilisation, a nuance not appreciated by folks not schooled since little in what is and is not tolerated by the people, and a point forgotten by the DDP zealots in their haste.
Just as Core Comrade Xi did not at all mind Trump's trade / IP / technology / student visa / supply chain wars, he is not bothered by Pelosi's 'wing-it' move. In truth Xi probably welcomes Pelosi to emigrate to Taiwan island should she be amenable, and the same applies to all willing politicians of 5Eyes / Nato / Japan / S Korea.
Now we must ask ourselves how is the ruling party DDP going to deliver prosperity to the people in a domain where the people cares for prosperity as inward investment dwindle due to inward investors caution given risks / certainties highlighted by Pelosi.
Arguably the DDP is doing to ROC people what SOTP (Servant of the People) did to Ukraine, with the difference that the infrastructure and talents are all either in place or on the CCP PRC mainland. Life returns to normal, meaning as before, in wait-for-it mode.
As the prosperity either drains away or is feared to drain away, KMT shall replace DDP at the seat and do their powwow with the CCP, triggering the mother of all booms. End of happy story. So goes the theory.
In the meantime 2028 that is in between 2026 and 2032 holds what it held on the time line w/r to the alleged Decision Day, Peace / War.
I remain agnostic, made above observations, and appreciate the explications whilst am impressed by the implications, if am correct in read of statics and dynamics, etc etc
Let us watch & brief. Very very extremely interesting.
Below article points to a few pebbles. There are other pebbles and prospective pebbles, all possible gems.
bloomberg.com
Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Is Only the Start of US Headaches
China can employ a vast range of gray-zone tactics to pressure the island, most of which Washington will find hard to counter without risking an open conflict.
Minxin Pei
3 August 2022, 04:32 GMT+8
Pelosi’s visit has caused an uproar.
Photographer: Annabelle Chih/Getty Images
To widespread relief, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plane landed in Taipei without incident on Aug. 2. Fears that the Chinese military might interfere with her flight, triggering a dangerous confrontation with the United States, did not materialize.
The challenge facing the US, however, has only just begun. In response to Pelosi’s visit, the Chinese military announced a three-day military exercise in six areas close to Taiwan. Although this round of drills won’t start until noon on Aug. 4 —after Pelosi’s scheduled departure — it marks an unprecedented escalation of China’s military tactics in the Taiwan Strait. Even a casual look at the areas designated as off-limits reveals that they simulate a naval blockade.
The drills are a reminder that China has many different ways short of war to pressure Taiwan and undermine US support for the island. In coming years, countering such “ gray-zone” tactics will likely represent the toughest challenge the US faces in its effort to maintain Taiwan’s security.
Especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Western media in particular has focused too heavily on the threat of a Normandy-style, amphibious invasion of Taiwan. In fact, such an assault is unlikely in the next five to seven years; the costs and risks of failure are simply too high for China.
Instead, until China acquires the full range of capabilities to ensure a successful military campaign against Taiwan, it is more likely to resort to increasingly aggressive gray-zone tactics in pursuit of its strategic goal — to deter international support for Taiwan and achieve reunification through peaceful means if possible.
Besides demonstrating Chinese resolve, such tactics can impose real economic costs on Taiwan by raising the risk premia for doing business with the island. If Taiwan is perceived to be an increasingly unsafe place with which to trade, foreign countries and businesses will seek alternatives. Indeed, concerns about continued access to advanced chips, a sector Taiwan dominates, motivated the US Congress to pass recent legislation shoring up the domestic semiconductor industry.
For Chinese leaders, the most attractive aspect of gray-zone tactics is their flexibility. Unlike overt acts of war, they give China the option to escalate while avoiding a direct confrontation with the US military.
The exercises China is about to conduct are a sobering illustration. Substantively, they are dangerous, provocative and disruptive. Technically, however, they do not amount to an act of war that demands a US response. In all likelihood, the relative brevity of the drills is designed as a warning. In a more drastic future scenario, China may decide to hold a multi-week naval exercise around Taiwan that effectively closes off its sea lines of communications.
More dangerous tactics could involve sending military planes and ships so close to Taiwan’s territorial waters and airspace that Taiwan has to scramble jets to intercept them, raising the risk of an accidental exchange of fire. The ensuing tensions could result in panic and temporary closure of Taiwan’s airspace.
Gray-zone warfare is not risk-free for China. Deployed mainly as instruments of psychological warfare, such tactics tend to generate decreasing returns as their intended targets adapt. If adopted recklessly, they could quickly escalate to a war the Chinese military is not ready to wage.
Still, knowing that China is likely to resort to gray-zone strategies should force the US to rethink its support for Taiwan’s defense. Simply building up the island into a defensive “ porcupine” that is too hard for China to digest — while certainly worth doing — will not be enough to ensure its security.
One option obviously is for the US to push back forcefully even against actions short of war. US aircraft carriers could be deployed close to Taiwan as deterrent each time China escalates.
This strategy might calm panic on the island, as the dispatch of two US carrier battle groups to the area did during an earlier episode of Chinese saber-rattling in 1996. It could also risk an accidental conflict, however, especially if the US decides to enter zones marked by China for live-fire drills.
The better option is to engage in preemptive diplomacy to prevent a future crisis. This will require pragmatism and restraint from all sides — the US, China and Taiwan. Given the dangerous and delicate nature of the Taiwan issue, all the parties involved must understand that this is the only course, however difficult it may be politically.
For all the tensions surrounding Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, it will have served some purpose if it spurs the U.S. and China to revive dialogue and look for ways to avoid a similar crisis in the future. The alternative is too bleak to contemplate.
To contact the author of this story:
Minxin Pei at mpei6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Nisid Hajari at nhajari@bloomberg.net |
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