"They have every reason, politically, to indict him"
They also have every reason, politically, to not indict him, at least until they charge him for something major, like fake electors. If you're gonna risk armed mobs, it had better be for something more substantial than violations of the records act.
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"The only reason not to is to pull off some sort of 3D-chess move and allow him to run in 2024"
He can run while indicted. He prolly isn't DQ'ed for records violations.
According to the Congressional Research Service, anyone who engages in the “unlawful removal or destruction of government records” is subject to punishment under Title 18, Section 2071, of the US Code. And that section notes:
Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States. [Emphasis added.].....
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