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Strategies & Market Trends : Ted Warren's Investolator

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To: WEagle who wrote (1103)	8/15/2022 8:47:16 AM
From: robert b furman	of 1797

Hi WEagle, I keep a lot of Breezes charts. He is quite methodical on his reviews, and I feel they make great history. So my most recent dated August 13th. Note he has the C of a big IV complete. That puts us in (5) of 5 of the larger cycle (I) is in its terminal wave. We are either in a 1 or as Cheif had posted a possible 2 wave but I think he was referring to the Dow. NOT ALL WAVES HAVE THE SAME WAVE STRUCTURE. So this mornings decline could be the start of continuation of the a 2of the Five and/or the start of a 3 of 5 in other waves. 3's are what is called the recognition wave - powerful waves that result in the covering of short positions - thus the "recognition" label. Running flats are often found here as well (A number 2 wave would be a possible running flat). That would make a 1 extended in appearance initially. When the (I) does morph into a (II), then a retrace to the 50 to 61.8% of the Wave (1)'s run up will happen 72% of the time. That IV wave started as low as 1200 and as high as 2900. so 50% to 61.8% of a 1700 decline will impact almost all stocks . Now I'll be keeping my dividend payers, but anything that doesn't pay a dividend will create a taxable event and possibly allow a purchase at a lower price or more shares at the same cost basis. It could also just be a good time to take some cash out and run on the market's money. It will require a thorough review of all holdings. I do not feel comfortable shorting - that's just me. In 2000 I shorted AMAT perfectly and the next day I covered - I'm just not comfortable with an unlimited risk. I can hold a dividend payer forever if I have the right cost basis. That's just me. Selling out and the 2 becoming a running flat is the bad risk of the transition(as you'll lose your position and have to buy back in at a higher cost basis and pay taxes on the first gain - ouch. Safe to say how the (II) acts will be the tell. Note that (I) took from 1990 to 2020 - 32 years, so it could be a long time of depressed prices. No doubt the nimble will be riding this terminal wave which has yet to confirm a solid 2,3,4 5 of 5. So we have time on our side, BUT THAT (II) LOOMS LARGE OUT THERE! That's just my read, I could well be wrong on E wave reads. Thanks to Breeze for keeping us updated! Bob

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